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INITUSDT (1d)

2025-04-24 → 2026-11-11 · 567 bars · generated 2026-11-12 07:14 UTC

Signal on the last closed bar
Neutral
Score 7.5 / 21 · 36% confidence · close 0.134160
Strategy return
-1.77%
Buy & hold -32.92%
Max drawdown
-10.92%
Exposure 30%
Sharpe ratio
-0.09
annualised
Win rate
31.2%
16 trades
Profit factor
0.91
Avg trade -2.96%
Fees paid
35.63
Capital 10,000
Chance of loss
61%
2,000 Monte Carlo runs

Price, signals & trades

hover a candle to see why it scored

Equity vs buy & hold

Signal checklist (last bar)

  • Trendline breakout+5
  • Swing point breakout+4
  • Strong uptrend - ADX>25, +DI>-DI+3
  • MACD above signal line+2
  • Above key moving averages+2
  • Above-average volume+1.5
  • RSI in healthy range+1
  • Bullish pattern+2.5

Trade plan

No entry signal on the last closed bar – the checklist shows which conditions are missing.

Monte Carlo – 2,000 resampled trade sequences

Median return %-1.80
Return 5th percentile %-17.79
Return 95th percentile %+17.36
Median max drawdown %-10.31
Max drawdown 5th percentile %-19.28
Probability of loss %60.95

Signal edge – what happened after each signal

SignalCountAvg 5-bar %Avg 10-bar %Avg 20-bar %Hit rate 10-bar %Edge 10-bar %
All bars (baseline)567-0.18-1.05-2.4543.630.00
Long or Strong Long54-2.64-3.76+8.2649.06-2.70
Strong Long9-9.63-11.64-0.6944.44-10.59
Trendline breakout10-9.65-10.67-0.8640.00-9.62
Swing point breakout9+4.03-5.92+9.1350.00-4.86
Strong uptrend - ADX>25, +DI>-DI211+1.88+3.31+4.8555.22+4.37
MACD above signal line328-2.13-2.58-0.0342.64-1.53
Above key moving averages125+3.01+6.38+17.2766.39+7.43
Above-average volume180-2.18-5.01-3.6840.80-3.95
RSI in healthy range493-0.85-2.28-5.2540.91-1.23
Bullish pattern18-2.25-3.25-1.9047.06-2.19
Inverse Head and Shoulders1+3.43+16.88+7.99100.00+17.93
Double Bottom16-2.85-6.00-4.8540.00-4.94
Triple Bottom1+1.04+17.87+29.52100.00+18.92
Bull Flag0–––––
Cup and Handle0–––––
Head and Shoulders0–––––
Double Top9-3.21+0.41-4.9977.78+1.46
Triple Top2-8.63-8.63+9.7850.00-7.58
Bear Flag0–––––
Breakdown below support3-2.92+13.67+11.1833.33+14.72

Trades

EntryEntry priceExitExit priceReasonBarsReturn
2026-11-110.2752182026-11-110.196073Stop loss0-28.93%
2026-10-310.1889442026-11-020.134498Stop loss2-28.99%
2026-10-290.2232622026-10-300.174943Stop loss1-21.82%
2026-10-280.1663732026-10-280.239133Take profit0+43.49%
2026-10-170.1258032026-10-270.172455Take profit10+36.85%
2026-10-160.1418212026-10-160.120486Stop loss0-15.23%
2026-09-300.1030512026-10-150.136317Take profit15+32.05%
2026-09-290.0897552026-09-290.116182Take profit0+29.21%
2026-09-250.1001402026-09-280.088306Stop loss3-12.01%
2026-09-180.0761182026-09-240.095482Take profit6+25.21%
2026-09-110.0702152026-09-160.067216Breakdown5-4.47%
2026-08-220.0577692026-08-220.051943Stop loss0-10.27%
2026-03-120.0897452026-05-270.070865Stop loss76-21.22%
2026-02-160.1092552026-02-240.083037Stop loss8-24.17%
2026-01-160.0948472026-02-040.077137Stop loss19-18.85%
2025-11-080.1331672025-12-020.095758Stop loss24-28.26%